How Are The Leading Countries Faring On The Path To Net Zero?

At-a-Glance

In the run-up to the COP27 climate conference in Egypt, more than 80 countries announced pledges to reach net-zero emissions around mid-century. Most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations aim to reach net zero by 2050, while developing countries plan to get there a decade or two later. China and India aim to reach net zero by 2060 and 2070, respectively. For more, read How Are The Leading Countries Faring On The Path To Net Zero?

Key Takeaways

  • Wood Mackenzie’s inaugural Global Net Zero Pledges Case Scenario finds that energy-related emissions in the pledges case scenario decline 8% from 2019 levels by 2030 and by 80% by 2050. Global net zero arrives around 2060, taking cumulative emissions to around 750 billion tons of CO2.
  • Compared with the base case, power demand expands by about 40% under the pledges scenario, with green hydrogen the single largest source of incremental growth by 2050.
  • Around 90% of incremental capacity comes from wind, solar, and energy storage. 
  • Low-carbon dispatchable generation becomes critical due to higher wind and solar penetration. Markets shift to investing in ammonia co-firing, hydrogen combustion, and carbon capture and storage to provide flexible generation.
  • Hydrogen production reaches 500 to 630 million tons per annum under the pledges and net-zero scenarios, respectively.

Path to 100% Perspective

The urgency of the climate crisis demands that the power sector pioneers the rapid decarbonization of economies worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency’s 2050 roadmap, there is a viable pathway to a global net zero emissions energy sector by 2050 – but it’s narrow and calls for a transformation in how energy is produced, transported, stored, and used globally. Countries must front-load the transition toward net zero, taking major steps in the next few years to tackle the climate crisis.

Fortunately, power generation is undergoing a rapid transformation toward cleaner energy sources due to huge additions of low-cost renewable electricity. There is also a wide array of potential future fuels, including hydrogen, that can help to phase out fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy. Adding more flexible gas generation that can convert to sustainable fuels and closing inflexible fossil assets will also be key in the final push to decarbonize energy systems.

Pathways to clean power

At-a-Glance

The coming years will see a monumental shift in the way that mining operations are run. With the clock ticking fast and the first net-zero deadline of 2030 steadily approaching, mining companies will need to make drastic changes to their power systems away from diesel and fossil fuels and toward green renewable energy sources. For more, read Pathways to clean power.

Key Takeaways

  • Mining companies are setting ambitious emissions reduction goals, with many of them pledging to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To meet these targets, all methods of producing clean energy need to be considered.
  • Wartsila is helping mining companies decide on the ideal power generation mix of green energy technologies using dynamic modeling and energy optimization to create personalized solutions for individual operations.
  • Wartsila enters historical data concerning production and power demand into the PLEXOS modeling tool to create a dynamic simulation of how a mining operation would function using a mix of different green energy types.
  • Once a plan is in place, Wartsila uses its GEMS Digital Energy Platform to identify a starting point in the energy management system to drive the optimal energy mix so decarbonization can happen.
  • The GEMS platform has been used at sites such as B2Gold’s Fekola mine in Mali, where it integrates and optimizes a hybrid energy solution – energy storage technology, a solar array, and a power generator – which led to improved power reliability and reduced emissions, fuel consumption, and operational costs of the mining operations. 

Path to 100% Perspective

The mining industry is looking for ways to improve the carbon footprint of its operations today. Because mining operations are energy intensive, this represents a significant challenge, but decarbonization is possible with a carefully planned approach. Various options are available for making a positive impact on carbon emissions. Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are increasingly being utilized, but they represent only part of the solution. Energy storage, flexible and efficient power generation, and future carbon-neutral fuels are other available solutions. Using technologies like the GEMS Digital Energy Platform can help mining companies come up with a decarbonization roadmap that makes sense for them and future proofs their assets.

Solar energy could be key in Puerto Rico’s transition to 100% renewables, study says

At-a-Glance

It’s becoming clearer how Puerto Rico might meet its goal of getting 100% of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2050. For more, read Solar energy could be key in Puerto Rico’s transition to 100% renewables, study says.

Key Takeaways

  • Last year, the DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, began studying options to transition the island to 100% renewable energy by 2050.
  • The goals of this two-year, federal government study, called PR100, are to build an electricity system that is more resilient against future storms, to transition away from imported fossil fuels to cleaner sources such as solar and wind, and to make electricity more affordable. 
  • A half-way update on the study was released on January 23. In the report, researchers found there’s a preference among many residents for “distributed energy,” which is generated near where it’s used.
  • As part of the study, four scenarios have been modeled to meet Puerto Rico’s targets – all include more rooftop solar combined with battery storage. The first scenario aligns with the found preference for distributed energy and includes a focus on installing distributed energy, namely solar panels, on buildings where owners could get the financial benefits of generating electricity.
  • The final three scenarios include focusing on critical services like hospitals and fire stations, prioritizing deployment in remote and low-to-moderate income areas to distribute benefits equitably, and installing solar panels on as many other rooftops as possible.

Path to 100% Perspective

Reliable access to power is fundamental to our way of life and our ability to thrive – as individuals, communities, countries, and an interconnected world. The people of Puerto Rico know this full well, having endured widespread power outages due to Hurricanes Maria and Fiona. As the island looks to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050, it’s best that they heed the four key factors that contribute to the success of renewables and our drive toward a net-zero future: flexibility, efficiency, resilience, and reliability. A focus on increasing solar + storage is a necessary and key first step on their Path to 100%.

Wartsila energy storage systems keep island grid secure

At-a-Glance

Wartsila will supply two 10 MW / 10 MWh energy storage systems consisting of its GridSolv Quantum integrated energy storage system and GEMS Digital Energy Platform software to Caribbean Utilities Company Ltd. (CUC) in the Cayman Islands. The project, which will be CUC’s first energy storage facility, will enable the utility to approximately double its renewable energy capacity on Grand Cayman, the largest of the three Cayman Islands. For more, read Wartsila energy storage systems keep island grid secure.

Key Takeaways

  • The new energy storage facilities will allow CUC to operate its generating assets, including a 5 MW solar farm, in a more efficient manner, reducing fuel costs to electricity consumers.
  • The energy storage systems will also facilitate up to a total of approximately 29 MW of distributed customer-sited renewable energy resources without causing instability to the grid.
  • The systems are expected to provide extensive power system optimization capabilities and the battery will have the ability to react much faster than the existing plant, reducing the risk of customer outages caused by a loss of generation.
  • The systems are expected to become operational in late 2023.
  • Wartsila is no stranger to optimizing island power grids as its GEMS software and GridSolv energy storage systems are being used to manage 4.5 MW of wind energy, 1 MW of solar and 2.5 MW of energy storage on the island of Graciosa in the Azores, and provide 25 MW of energy storage for Bahama Power and Light.

Path to 100% Perspective

Island grids face unique reliability and resiliency challenges before considering the intermittency caused by increased integration of renewables. Places like the Cayman Islands demonstrate how steps are being taken to not only work toward renewable energy goals to reduce carbon emissions, but also to optimize energy generation and improve grid reliability in the face of seasonal variability and extreme weather events

New York’s plan to expand storage capacity to 6 GW by 2030 includes centralized procurement method

At-a-Glance

On December 28, 2022, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a plan for how the state will reach 6 GW of energy storage by 2030, representing at least 20% of peak electricity load. For more, read New York’s plan to expand storage capacity to 6 GW by 2030 includes centralized procurement method.

Key Takeaways

  • The proposed plan is projected to reduce projected future statewide electric system costs by nearly $2 billion and the average customer bill would rise by less than 0.05%, or 46 cents a month.
  • The plan calls for 3,000 MW of new bulk storage that would power about one million homes for up to four hours; 1,500 MW of new retail storage to power about 500,000 homes for up to four hours; and 200 MW of residential storage that would power 120,000 homes for up to two hours.
  • The power would be procured through a competitive Index Storage Credit mechanism that officials say will provide some certainty to projects while saving money for consumers.
  • At least 35% of plan funding would support projects to benefit disadvantaged communities and target fossil fuel peaker plant emissions reductions.
  • Electric utilities would also be required to study the potential of high-value energy storage projects toward providing cost-effective transmission and distribution services not currently available in existing markets.

Path to 100% Perspective

New York’s plans to double its energy storage capacity by 2030 is an important step for the state to reach its goal of 100% zero-emission electricity by 2040. In the big picture, a key piece of the 100% emissions-free electricity puzzle will be to deploy significant amounts of long-duration energy storage, especially from 2030 onward. The need to meet daily ramping needs and energy requirements covering a few hours is currently driving the adoption of short duration battery energy storage. After 2030, multi-day and seasonal week-long gaps between supply and demand will require larger quantities of storage capacity. This is where long duration energy storage and sustainable fuels come in. As well as offering green, firm capacity, sustainable fuels can be stored for many months and can release megawatts of power within minutes when needed, when combusted with thermal balancing power plants.

Two Partnerships Expand Access To Clean Energy & Transport In The Eastern US

At-a-Glance

A couple of energy projects in the Eastern United States are helping to increase access to clean energy and clean transport, while helping to level the playing field in other ways too. For more, read Two Partnerships Expand Access To Clean Energy & Transport In The Eastern US.

Key Takeaways

  • New York-based Autel Energy is partnering with Legacy Clean Energy (LCE), a minority-owned business in Charlotte, North Carolina, to offer electric vehicle charging solutions for corporations and marginalized communities across the country.
  • In Pennsylvania, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) and Lightsource bp have joined forces with a 25-megawatt solar project now in operation. With the addition of this second solar farm to SEPTA’s statewide portfolio, both companies boast 42 megawatts – rough electricity to fulfill 20% of SEPTA’s total demand.
  • By partnering with Lightsource bp, SEPTA’s Elk Hill Solar 1 project has enabled Pennsylvania to reduce its carbon footprint by 28,000 metric tons of CO2 each year.
  • The solar farm not only contributes to achieving Pennsylvania’s clean energy goals but also increases energy security and diversifies their portfolio. 

Path to 100% Perspective

Engaging private industry in the path to 100% is critical to develop the solutions and innovations needed for decarbonization. These examples show what’s possible when private companies and utilities partner to expand both capacity and access to clean energy. Partnerships like these are needed to accelerate the transition to net zero, meet decarbonization goals, and limit the impacts of climate change.

Generating Change: Wartsila’s Evolution

At-a-Glance

Finnish company Wartsila evolved from humble beginnings as a sawmill into a global marine and energy powerhouse that is today a model of customer value creation, decarbonization, and growth amid uncertainty. Driving that triumph over its 188-year history is a consistent spirit of innovation and flexibility. For more, read Generating Change: Wartsila’s Evolution.

Key Takeaways

  • Since 2010, Wartsila has been focusing on becoming a world leader in balancing and power optimization to help customers achieve decarbonization and transition toward a 100% renewable energy future.
  • In May 2020, Wartsila began work developing a combustion process in its engines to achieve 100% hydrogen fuel combustion. The company expects to launch a power plant design for hydrogen blends in 2022, followed by a concept for pure hydrogen in 2025.
  • In March 2022, Wartsila began operating two Wartsila 34SG engines, a combined output of 11.6 MW, that can run on 3% hydrogen and natural gas blend at Keppel Offshore Marine’s “Floating Living Lab” in Singapore.
  • In addition to hydrogen, other potential renewable fuels are being studied for future applications. In 2022, Wartsila released its Wartsila 32 Methanol engine to the market and it expects to have engine concepts ready for operating with pure ammonia fuel in 2023.

Path to 100% Perspective

Modern and flexible engine power plants are an ideal solution for balancing power, due to their flexibility in fuels and operation profiles. This is needed as batteries alone cannot fulfill the balancing need for fluctuating renewable power sources. Flexible capacity must be ready to start quickly at any time and capable of ramping up and down an unlimited number of times a day. Current Wartsila engine power plants can connect to the grid in 30 seconds and reach full load in just two minutes. In addition, current Wartsila gas engineer power plants can use up to 25 vol% hydrogen blends in natural gas and there is ongoing development for pure hydrogen and other P2X fuels, such as ammonia, methane, and methanol. As part of the strong green hydrogen boom, Wartsila is planning several hydrogen projects with partners and customers ranging from utilizing hydrogen blends in existing assets to a P2X2P plant in collaboration with partners.

DOE awards $100 million for innovative floating wind, pumped storage and other emerging clean energy tech

At-a-Glance

Eight companies working on technological advancements in clean energy have been awarded millions in federal funding to help scale up production on innovations that would streamline sectors such as offshore wind and pumped storage. For more, read DOE awards $100 million for innovative floating wind, pumped storage and other emerging clean energy tech.

Key Takeaways

  • Recipients of funding from the Seeding Critical Advances for Leading Energy technologies with Untapped Potential (SCALEUP) are described as “disruptive new technologies” that will be transformational for the industry. The funds will “catalyze” commercialization of the technologies so they can be “broadly deployed.”
  • DOE cited Kent Houston Offshore Engineering’s two floating offshore wind turbine technologies as “disruptive,” noting that the company’s focus on designing more efficient turbines and lowering fabrication costs will lead to floating wind farms producing cheaper electricity while reaching profitability.
  • Quidnet Energy will use DOE funding to scale up its geomechanical pumped storage technology into a system that can be used commercially. Its technology uses subsurface rock layers to avoid some of the limits and expense of traditional pumped storage.
  • The first utility to make use of Quidnet Energy’s technology will be CPS Energy, San Antonio’s municipal utility and the largest one in the U.S.

Path to 100% Perspective

Investments in clean energy technology, like DOE’s SCALEUP funding, are important for bringing innovative decarbonization technologies to scale. A variety of technologies will have a role to play along the Path to 100%, including wind and pumped storage. The missing piece of the puzzle is viable long-term storage technologies which will be needed to provide megawatts of capacity and megawatt hours of energy during long duration seasonal conditions or unexpected renewable droughts. Power-to-X technology is a promising solution, using renewable energy sources like wind and solar to produce green hydrogen and other sustainable fuels that can be used for affordable long-term storage. We look forward to seeing how these eight companies will “disrupt” clean energy tech with their innovations.

Pattern Energy buys 3-GW SunZia transmission project to deliver wind energy from New Mexico to Arizona

At-a-Glance

In July 2022, Pattern Energy Group bought the proposed SunZia transmission project, a 525-kV line set to deliver 3,000 MW to Arizona from wind farms Pattern is developing in New Mexico. For more, read Pattern Energy buys 3-GW SunZia transmission project to deliver wind energy from New Mexico to Arizona.

Key Takeaways

  • Pattern Energy expects to begin full construction of the SunZia transmission project and the SunZia wind projects in 2023, with operations for the bi-directional power line set to start in 2025, and the wind farms coming online in early 2026.
  • Pattern Energy’s announcement that it is buying the first phase of the SunZia project from Southwestern Power Group is part of a surge in transmission activity in the West.
  • The Bureau of Land Management has authorized construction on a 500-kV power line between Arizona and California and Southwestern Power Group is continuing to develop a second SunZia phase, a 500-kV high voltage-alternating current transmission line called El Rio Sol Transmission that would parallel the SunZia line.
  • Pattern Energy has also been marketing its wind generation to utilities in California. In December 2021, the Los Angeles Department of Wind and Power started buying power from Pattern Energy’s 350-MW Red Cloud wind farm in New Mexico for $41/MWh under a 20-year, fixed-price contract.
  • Pattern Energy said it is developing other interstate transmission projects, including the 525-kV Southern Spirit Transmission project, a bi-directional transmission line that would connect the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas to the Southeast market.

Path to 100% Perspective

The SunZia transmission project is just one example of the kinds of infrastructure that will be needed to support the addition of renewable electricity sources on the Path to 100%. These projects also make renewables more accessible for regions that don’t have the capacity to harness wind or solar, ensuring a reliable, resilient supply of power. Resilience and reliability are two key factors that contribute to the success of renewables and our drive toward a net-zero future. But so is flexibility. Adding energy storage and thermal balancing is critical to ensure backup power is available when there is insufficient wind and solar.

The Hydrogen Economy Will Soon Be Ready For Takeoff, Including Planes and Power Plants

At-a-Glance

Does the aviation sector have its head in the clouds? Indeed, the experts are working hard to make hydrogen a sustainable aviation fuel. For more, read The Hydrogen Economy Will Soon Be Ready For Takeoff, Including Planes and Power Plants.

Key Takeaways

  • A study by Clean Sky 2 and Fuel Cells & Hydrogen 2 says that hydrogen-powered aircraft could be ready for flight as early as 2035.
  • The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed a year ago includes up to $7 billion to establish between 6 and 10 regional hydrogen hubs across the country. The goal is to create a network of hydrogen producers and industrial consumers with an interconnected infrastructure to accelerate the use of clean hydrogen.
  • In its Hydrogen Economy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance says green hydrogen could supply 24% of the world’s energy demands by 2050 while cutting CO2 levels by 34%.
  • To help accelerate the use of green hydrogen, the U.S. Department of Energy is taking an “Earthshot”, launched in June 2021, to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per one kilogram in one decade. Currently, hydrogen from renewable energy costs about $5 per kilogram.
  • The hydrogen hubs will be essential to achieving economies of scale, bringing about price parity and driving adoption.

Path to 100% Perspective

Hydrogen is one of several potential future fuels that can help phase out fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy as part of the final push to decarbonize energy systems. At the moment, hydrogen is the most promising candidate of the P2X fuel for power plants. Hydrogen is carbon-free, has the highest production energy efficiency of the P2X fuels, and with time it is predicted to become the most cost competitive due to low renewable electricity prices. The most sustainable form of hydrogen is green hydrogen, which is produced through electrolysis of water utilizing renewable electricity. Important for green hydrogen production is access to renewable electricity and clean water. Locations with favorable conditions for these will become hydrogen production hubs.

Deep Geothermal – One Renewable Energy Source to Rule Them All?

At-a-Glance

Deep geothermal technologies, such as the gyrotron, may be the key to harnessing the heat stored below the Earth’s crust to make abundant zero emissions energy. For more, read Deep Geothermal – One Renewable Energy Source to Rule Them All?

Key Takeaways

  • Gyrotrons, which produce high power beams, are currently used in fusion research. Paul Woskov, an MIT researcher, has posed the idea of using the technology to drill geothermal wells that can reach the Earth’s mantle.
  • MIT spinoff Quaise Energy received a grant from the Department of Energy to scale up Woskov’s lab experiments using a larger gyrotron. The goal is to vaporize a hole 100 times the depth of Woskov’s current experiments by sometime next year.
  • Quaise Energy plans to start harvesting energy from pilot geothermal wells that reach rock temperatures at up to 500°C by 2026. The team then hopes to begin repurposing coal and natural gas generating plants using its system.
  • Many of the skills developed over the past century by the oil and gas industry are readily transferable to deep geothermal, meaning that a ready-made, well-trained workforce is already available. Current fossil fuel infrastructure can be readily repurposed to rapidly advance geothermal energy.

Path to 100% Perspective

A variety of technologies will have a role to play along the Path to 100%. Deep geothermal is an emerging technology that can help ease the transition. What makes this technology exciting is that it’s compatible with existing thermal power plants, which can be converted to run on steam instead of coal and natural gas. Building conditions to enable investment in thermal balancing power plants is a key step to frontloading net zero and adding geothermal energy is one way to make this possible. There are many other renewable sources in use today that are the subject of scale-up research and expanded deployment, including ocean energy, bioenergy, and renewable synthetic fuels from Power-to-X (P2X). Ocean, biomass, and geothermal are not forecast to get to the scale that solar and wind could reach, but all are important. All of these technologies are part of the analysis and discussion around the transition to a 100% renewable energy future.

California’s Solar Problem Could Be Solved by Floating Wind Farms

At-a-Glance: 

In its quest to decarbonize its energy, California is heading offshore. Besides being green, tapping the winds over the Pacific Ocean offers an additional benefit: Good timing. For more read California’s Solar Problem Could Be Solved by Floating Wind Farms.

Key Takeaways:

  • While current solar capacity in California provides a deluge of power supply in the middle of the day, the peak demand for power is in the evening, when solar isn’t as reliable. This is especially troubling during extreme weather conditions.
  • Wind turbines off the coast capture steadier ocean winds than those on land, sometimes 50% more, and it usually peaks at night, making it a useful complement to solar power during the day and reducing the need to turn to gas-fired plants and battery storage
  • Matching supply more precisely with demand is an essential, but often overlooked, element of the energy transition. Traditional power supply relies on having dispatchable generators, usually burning fossil fuels, on call to match fluctuating demand. 

Path to 100% Perspective

California can reach its goal of serving 100% of retail load with renewable energy. However, this cannot be achieved with its current portfolio of resources. The rolling blackouts in summer 2020 show that California needs additional resources to supplement the tools already in place. More specifically, California needs new resources that complement the wind, solar, and hydro needed for a shift to a 100% renewable electricity system. Slow ramping, long start, baseload resources must be replaced by faster, more flexible resources that are capable of running on sustainable fuels. Sustainable fuels produced by excess wind and solar energy, plus storage resources, can enable California to cleanly and reliably shift energy from low-net loads to high-net loads.