Tag Archives: Total

Total Sees Oil Demand Peaking Before 2030 in Power Switch

At-a-Glance:

French energy giant TotalEnergies SE expects global oil demand to peak before the end of this decade, as more nations crack down on fossil fuels and promote cleaner power in transport and industry to mitigate global warming. Total’s 2021 Energy Outlook, which takes into account new net-zero pledges made by countries including the U.S. and China, assumes crude demand will plateau before 2030 and then decline. To learn more, read, “Total Sees Oil Demand Peaking Before 2030 in Power Switch.”

Key Takeaways:

  • Total’s Momentum scenario, which is based on environmental targets and policies announced worldwide, points to a 2.2 to 2.4-degree increase in global temperatures by the end of the century.
  • This year’s report “considerably” raises the company’s forecasts for global solar and wind investments by the middle of the century to electrify transport as governments increasingly ban the sale of internal combustion vehicles.
  • Meanwhile, natural gas is seen keeping its role as a transition fuel, especially as carbon dioxide and methane emissions are increasingly reined in.

Path to 100% Perspective: 

According to the IEA’s landmark 2050 roadmap, there is a viable pathway to build a global net zero emissions energy sector by 2050, but it is narrow and calls for a transformation in how energy is produced, transported and used globally. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends that to limit global warming to 1.5C°, global CO2 emissions should decline by 45% by 2030 in comparison to 2010 and reach net zero by 2050.

Meanwhile, the price of electricity does not need to increase when power systems move to net zero. Utilities are shifting from a costly operational expenditure (opex) model, where capital is continually drawn into fuelling and maintaining legacy inflexible coal, oil, and gas plants – to a new model where up-front capital expenditure (capex) is invested in predictable, low maintenance, renewable energy technology. Flexibility creates the conditions where renewable energy is the most profitable way to power our grids: ensuring back-up power is available when there’s insufficient wind or solar – and earning rewards from capacity mechanisms.

 

Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

The Future Of Carbon Capture Is In The Air

At-a-Glance 

While renewable energy is now widely accepted as the cheapest form of electricity generation, energy demand growth, government growth requirements and the need for a responsible transition mean fossil fuels will still have a role. But for that to work with climate goals, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology must be mainstreamed. In Iceland, Climeworks is showing how direct air capture/storage (DAC) could change the game. To learn more, read “The Future Of Carbon Capture Is In The Air.” Reading this article could require a subscription.

Key Takeaways

  • Climeworks new plant, named Orca, will combine Swiss-based Climeworks’ direct air capture technology with the underground storage of carbon dioxide provided by Iceland’s Carbfix and the plant should be online in spring 2021. 
  • What makes Climeworks use of DAC so interesting is that it doesn’t just work in removing emissions associated specifically with power generation, but can capture emissions directly from the air. This is the company’s largest plant so far, intended to capture around 4,000 tons of CO2 per year.
  • There has been significant movement in the CCS market recently. In the UK, as part of its recently announced green infrastructure plans, the government has promised £1 billion to set up four industrial clusters for CCS. 
  • The Norwegian government is working with Equinor, Shell and Total on a project intended to standardize and scale carbon capture, transportation and storage in Europe. The Northern Lights Project is expected to capture CO2 from industry in the Oslo-fjord region, following which the carbon will be liquefied and shipped to an onshore terminal on the Norwegian west coast and then taken out to the North Sea for long term subsea storage.
  • In Canada, Carbon Engineering says its technology can be scaled up to remove up to 1 million tons of CO2 from the air annually, with a large-scale plant in development with Occidental Petroleum with a completion date reported to be 2026. 

Path to 100% Perspective

Capturing carbon dioxide from the air, utilizing synthesis to combine these into hydrocarbons suitable for synthetic renewable fuels offers substantial opportunities to take valuable steps towards carbon neutral communities. These renewable fuels could be used in transportation, energy storage and energy distribution which improves power system sustainability, reliability and flexibility.

 

Photo by Thomas Kolbeck on Unsplash